General Stocks

Yesterday at the close of trading in New York, US stock markets rose, bouncing back from their earlier losses. Lower than expected unemployment claims in the US and the German parliament’s approval to increase the European Financial Stability Fund helped to compensate for the drop in the middle of the week, which came at the expense of high-tech companies and the consumer sector. Greek bonds increased, and the Euro appreciated. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index went up 0.8% to 1,160.40 at the close of trading in New York, recovering after a 1% drop the day before. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.4%, while the Stoxx Europe 600 increased 0.7% after banking sector stocks strengthened. Yields on two-year Greek bonds fell 453 basis points to 65.24%. Natural gas went down 1.4% in price after the US reported growth in supplies at the same time that oil prices rose. DT Trading analysts believe that on Friday, at the close of the month,...

by, James A. Hyerczyk Graincorp Limited broke through the support line of a channel up chart pattern on the 1440 minute chart, signaling the start of a possible break into the Autochartist downside target zone at 6.78 to 6.38. The overall quality of this chart pattern is 7-bars. The initial trend which was down at the start of the pattern registered a below average 4-bar rating. The move through the support line makes this break down a continuation trend change. The uniformity rating which measures the relationships between tops and bottoms as well as the number of touches of support and resistance is a solid 8-bars. The clarity rating which looks for market “noise” is rated 9-bars indicating a clearly defined chart pattern. The channel up chart pattern is a trending pattern. The fact that the market was trending down at the beginning of the pattern and that it broke through support is a sign that the trend is turning down again. The...

S&P500: 1215.76 Short-Term Trend: weak downtrend Outlook: Since the prices are below the declining 100-day moving average, the daily trend is still labelled as weak downtrend. However, the close abv the 1210 level is a positive sign that the market has actually build a base for the past month or so. The last decline to 1135 represents the final shake-out that is usually seen near the end of a basing formation. Thus, as long as the 1135 level holds, I give the benefit of the doubt to the upside. Only a decline below 1135 will be negative and yes, it will be very negative. But for now, the outlook is neutral to slightly positive. Strategy: As our short idea have not worked out, I prefer to stay out now.

by, James A. Hyerczyk The breakout to the upside by ASX Limited (ASX.AX) confirmed the completed triangle pattern on the 1440-minute chart. The size of the candlestick on the breakout indicates strong buying power and high momentum. If this continues then look for the market to reach the Autochartist forecast zone at 31.50 to 33.67 over the near-term. The overall quality rating is a slightly above average 6-bars. The initial trend which was up at the onset of the chart pattern garnered a low 2-bar rating. This indicates a weak trend. The 7-bar uniformity rating indicates equidistant tops and bottoms. The clarity rating is a below average 4-bars, but the triangle pattern is clearly defined. Although there were several gaps during its formation, they took place during the course of trading action and did not represent thin trading conditions. In addition, the absence of market “noise” or spikes makes this an attractive chart pattern. The maximum 10-bar rating is the main feature of...

by, James A. Hyerczyk Boral Limited (ASX: BLD) broke out above the resistance line of a triangle chart pattern on the 1440 minute chart, completing the pattern and setting up a possible extension of the current rally into the Autochartist forecast zone at 4.01 to 4.45. The overall quality of this chart pattern is rated an above average 6-bars. Although the initial trend was only 3-bars, it was offset by the maximum 10-bar breakout rating. The initial trend was also up at the start of the pattern, leading to the continuation trend change. Uniformity is also above average with a 6-bar rating. This solid rating highlights the three equidistant tops and bottoms. Clarity is an average 5-bars. The tops and bottoms appear to have been created with almost precise price and time symmetry. The triangle chart pattern is a non-trending pattern. The swings between tops and bottoms start out wide then gradually tighten until almost telegraphing an impending breakout. The maximum 10-bar breakout...

by, James A. Hyerczyk Caltex Australia Limited (CTX.ASX) broke through the support line of a rising wedge chart pattern on the 240-minute chart with a big candlestick, indicating heavy selling pressure and setting up a potential break into the Autochartist forecast zone at 10.16 to 9.32. The key to sustaining the move will be continued downside momentum. In addition, traders should watch for a possible acceleration to the downside if the swing bottom at 10.64 is violated. The overall chart pattern is 8-bars. The initial trend rating is also 8-bars, indicating a strong trend. The uniformity rating is only an average 5-bars. The long rally from 9.73 to 11.31 inside of a 27-candlestick chart pattern negated the possibility of equidistant tops and bottoms. The chart pattern was created without any market noise, leading to the solid 7-bar clarity rating. The rising wedge chart pattern is a trending pattern. The initial trend, which was down at the onset, coupled with the strong rating, is...

by, James A. Hyerczyk Billabong International Limited (BBG.AX) has formed a 3-Point Retracement Fibonacci pattern on the 30-minute chart. This current pattern suggests that the higher bottom at Point D or 3.37 could be signaling either a short-term rally into a series of retracement levels ranging from 3.49 to 3.69, or a breakout into 3.78 to 3.89. The 3-Point Retracement Fibonacci pattern contains the classic “lightening bolt” which is a feature of all Fibonacci patterns. What distinguishes this pattern from another Fibonacci pattern known as the 3-Point Extension is that Point D is higher than Point B, suggesting the start of a possible rally. After laboring though a series of retracement levels, bullish traders will try to drive this market through the recent top at Point C, or 3.69. This move will turn the main trend to up and signal a possible acceleration into the 1.272 retracement level at 3.78 or the 1.618 level at 3.89. The overall quality of this pattern is...

Nasdaq 100: 2161.38 Short-Term Trend: downtrend Outlook: While the outlook on the weekly chart is mixed at this stage (take a look at our Medium-Term Update), the daily chart is bearish. The prices are firmly below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages and these moving averages have already curled over the top and are expected to act as resistance levels for any rallies that can develop due to the current oversold conditions. So, I expect lower prices ahead. Near-Term, the market is attempting to rally but as long as it stays below its 2214 swing high and below the 2236 level, the bears are in cotrol. A decline below the 2035 wil confirm and will yield weaknesst wd 1962 level 1st... A week ago I recorded a video presentation about the most likely Medium-Term scenarios for the U.S. stock market. If you haven't watch it yet, you can do it here:

S&P500: 1122.91 Short-Term Trend: downtrend Outlook: As expected S&P500 rallied twd the 1210 level but failed to move abv there and then declined sharply on Thursday and Friday. With this move lower, we have a strong sign that the downtrend from the July top has resumed. If correct, weakness twd 1060 and possibly twd 1020 is expected. Since the market is heavily oversold now, I would expect to see some kind of a bounce from the 1060/20 area. What's the chance of a double bottom at 1100? - well, that's possible, but not very likely now. The daily chart is in strong downtrend, VIX is rallying (there is no spike now) and Nasdaq 100 is leading the market down. Under such conditions usually the decline continues. if houwever we see a move abv 1210, then a rally twd 1250/60 can become likely.... Strategy: If already short, you can favor holding short with a target near 1070/60 using proper risk-management. If not short already, it is probably...

by, James A. Hyerczyk The rally from the August 9 bottom at .44 in Macmahon Holdings Limited (MAH.AX) came to a stop on August 17 at .64. The subsequent two day break helped form a 3-Point Extension Fibonacci Pattern, signaling a possible near-term correction into a series of retracement levels The retracement levels or extensions are derived from mathematical relationships based on ratios, the most important of which are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%. During the formation of this pattern, the last leg shows a rally from Point B to Point C. Although Point C trades higher than Point A, the rally stalls, setting up a possible pull-back to support levels within the last major move. The creation of the support levels helps determine where the current move from Point C may end. Traders have two choices following the formation of Point C. Aggressive counter-trend traders may choose to take a swing chart approach. Noting that a top has been made at...